In today's A-share market, the most powerful institutions are undoubtedly the public funds, with the Northbound funds far behind in both volume and shareholding ratio compared to the local public funds of the A-share market. Over 20 years ago, the most powerful institutions in the A-share market were securities firms, with Southern Securities, Wan Guo, and Guo Tai Jun An being the dominant forces in the market at that time. Later on, public funds began to emerge in the A-share market. At that time, public funds were ridiculed by market manipulators as "big fools," meaning that although they had a large amount of funds, they did not know how to speculate and were often trapped. In the short term, public funds indeed appeared to be so, but in the long run, the long-term investment approach of public funds was still very profitable, and public funds were not foolish.
Since the launch of the Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect, in recent years, the "Northbound funds" have been regarded by many as "smart money" or "market barometers." Many people use the direction of Northbound funds as a guide for their investment operations every day, treating Northbound funds as "stock gods." I think there is no need for this, as Northbound funds are not that impressive, and ordinary investors do not need to refer to them for operations.
Data statistics show that from March 17, 2017, to the end of August 2023, over six years, the average annualized return rate of Northbound funds was 3.4%, while the annualized return rate of the CSI 300 Index was 1.43%. In other words, it was slightly stronger than the CSI 300 Index.
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Northbound funds have invested in more than 2,700 stocks, with more than 1,100 making a profit and more than 1,600 incurring losses. That is, more than 60% of the holdings are in a state of loss.
Therefore, whether it is the success rate of stock selection, investment return rate, or the size of funds, from any perspective, Northbound funds do not have an advantage in the A-share market. Let alone Northbound funds, even the world's largest asset management company, BlackRock, has suffered losses in the A-share market this year. Where in the world are there any stock gods? The times make stock gods. Stock gods are all created by the times.
What is the current situation of the A-share market?On the surface, the A-share market has been fluctuating around 3100 points recently, but in reality, it has already fallen below 3000 points! The reason it has not yet fallen below 3000 points is due to the support of large-cap stocks led by banks. If it were not for these large-cap stocks having a relatively shallow correction in the second half of this year, the overall market would have been a disaster.
Many individual stocks have experienced significant corrections in the second half of this year, with some even falling below the levels of last October's 2800 points. Faced with such a severe lack of liquidity, the management has intensively introduced favorable policies in August to stabilize the financial market.
Some fans say, "What's the use of good news? The market has not risen after the introduction of good news."
There is currently a lot of such pessimistic sentiment in the market. However, pessimists are right, and optimists make money. No matter which country's stock market you invest in, you must have an optimistic investment mentality. Otherwise, you will definitely not make much money.
When I entered the stock market more than 20 years ago, the market was pessimistic. There were those who cut their losses on Tsingtao Beer at more than 3 yuan, and there were those who sold Moutai at a loss of more than 40 yuan. At that time, their investment decisions seemed very correct, but what did they earn in the end?
The ones who can make a lot of money in the market are those who believe that the sun will still rise tomorrow. Optimistic people may not necessarily make a lot of money in the stock market, but those who can make a lot of money in the stock market are all optimistic. "Optimism" is one of the indispensable conditions for successful stock market investment.
Currently, many star public fund managers are optimistic about the future market and prove their attitude with their own money. For example, Ge Lan has increased his position in the Central Europe Research Selection, buying at least 500,000 shares. Zhou Weiwen increased his position in the Central Europe Mingrui New Normal in the first half of the year, buying at least more than one million shares. Liu Gesong self-purchased more than one million shares of Guangfa Shuangqing Upgrade.
Although the increase in positions by star fund managers does not predict that the market will improve immediately, it at least shows their optimistic attitude towards the future market and at least shows that they believe that the current A-shares are in a low-risk position. These star fund managers will not all be blind at this time, right?
The A-share market is actually full of gold at present, and the stocks of many excellent companies are very cheap. However, many retail investors dare not buy, and some people are even considering whether to cut their losses and leave in the past few days. Why is this the case?The essential reason is that the vast majority of retail investors do not like to learn. They come to this market with the idea of making easy money. If you tell him that the market is full of gold now, he rushes in and gets trapped for a few days or months, and when he sees the market not rising, he will be afraid, and he may even cut his losses. For him, the gold everywhere is just a trap everywhere.
The saying "gold everywhere" is only suitable for friends who are willing to make long-term investments. For short-term speculators, the market is really full of big pits now.
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